MTG Land Draw Probability Explained
Understand expected lands, at-least probabilities, hypergeometric sampling, and why one bad opening hand does not prove a mana base is wrong.
Related Calculators
- MTG Land CalculatorEstimate a starting land count for 40, 60, or 100-card Magic decks and review approximate land-draw probabilities by turn.
- OSRS Drop Rate CalculatorCalculate zero-drop, at-least-one, exactly-k, and target-confidence probabilities for independent OSRS drop rolls.
- OSRS ToA Loot CalculatorCalculate cumulative ToA purple chance, expected unique chests, target-item chance, expected value, raids required, and GP per hour.
- Pokemon Shiny Probability CalculatorCalculate effective shiny odds, the chance of finding at least one shiny after repeated encounters, and attempts needed for common confidence levels.
Expected value is not a guarantee
If 40% of a deck is lands and you see ten cards, the expected number of lands is four. That does not mean every ten-card sample contains exactly four.
Probability of at least a target
For an exact deck model without replacement, land draws follow the hypergeometric distribution. The MTG Land Calculator currently labels its displayed probabilities as a binomial approximation so users are not misled about the model.
Opening hand and turns
Cards seen normally begin with the opening hand and add one draw per turn, with play/draw rules and extra draw effects changing the count. Mulligans make the real decision process more complicated because players can reject hands and bottom cards.
Variance is normal
A deck can have a sound mana base and still flood or miss land drops in a short sample. Evaluate many games and distinguish random variance from a systematic construction problem.
Colored mana
Total-land probability is only one layer. Casting a spell on curve may require a certain number of red, blue, black, white, or green sources by that turn.
Related Guides
- How Many Lands Should an MTG Deck Have?Choose an MTG land count from deck size, average mana value, ramp, card selection, and the need to hit early land drops.
- OSRS Drop Rate Probability: How to Use a Drop Rate CalculatorLearn to use OSRS drop rate probability calculations to find your dry streak odds, time to 50% chance, and cumulative probability at any kill count.
- How Pokémon Shiny Odds WorkUnderstand base shiny rates, extra rolls, independent attempts, and why reaching the one-in denominator does not guarantee a shiny.
- Pokémon Shiny Probability by Number of EncountersCalculate the chance of at least one shiny after a hunt and understand 50%, 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence targets.
- ToA Purple Chance and Loot ProbabilityModel ToA purple odds, team share, target-item probability, raid milestones, expected value, and GP per hour.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What distribution models exact land draws?
- The hypergeometric distribution models drawing from a finite deck without replacement.
- Why use an approximation at all?
- It provides a transparent estimate in a generic formula engine, provided the result is clearly labeled and not presented as exact.
- Does a mulligan improve land odds?
- It can improve the quality of the kept hand, but the London mulligan process requires a more detailed model than a single opening draw.
Last updated 7/20/2026